Projection of Head of Religious Affairs Office (KUA) Requirements in Solo Raya Region for 2028–2030: Analysis of Civil Servant Registrar Availability and Role of CPNS Registrars

Abstrak

Abstrak

Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis proyeksi kebutuhan Kepala Kantor Urusan Agama (KUA) di wilayah Solo Raya pada periode 2028–2030 berdasarkan dinamika purnatugas Kepala KUA, ketersediaan Penghulu PNS aktif, dan potensi CPNS Penghulu sebagai calon pengganti jabatan struktural. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan deskriptif-kuantitatif dengan data internal Sistem Informasi Penghulu (SIP-APRI), data CPNS Penghulu Jawa Tengah hasil seleksi tahun 2024, dan data masa jabatan Kepala KUA. Analisis dilakukan melalui pemetaan supply–demand sumber daya manusia dan analisis skenario purnatugas. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa meskipun secara agregat jumlah Penghulu PNS aktif di Solo Raya mencukupi, distribusinya tidak merata antar kabupaten/kota. Kabupaten Wonogiri muncul sebagai wilayah paling rentan akibat akumulasi purnatugas Kepala KUA pada 2027–2029 dan keterbatasan stok Penghulu senior. Skenario purnatugas 50% Penghulu PNS aktif pada 2029 semakin memperkecil supply riil, sehingga CPNS Penghulu menjadi kelompok strategis dalam regenerasi kepemimpinan KUA. Penelitian ini merekomendasikan perencanaan kebutuhan Kepala KUA berbasis proyeksi jangka menengah, penguatan sistem merit dalam promosi jabatan, optimalisasi penilaian kinerja melalui Sasaran Kinerja Pegawai (SKP), dan pemanfaatan izin belajar sebagai instrumen peningkatan kompetensi calon Kepala KUA.

Abstract

This study analyzes the projected demand for Heads of Religious Affairs Offices (KUA) in the Solo Raya region for 2028–2030, focusing on retirement dynamics of incumbent Heads of KUA, availability of active civil servant registrars (Penghulu PNS), and the potential role of newly recruited civil servants (CPNS Penghulu) as structural position successors. The research employs a descriptive quantitative approach using internal SIP-APRI data, CPNS Penghulu data from Central Java's 2024 recruitment, and tenure projections of Heads of KUA. Analysis is conducted through supply–demand mapping and retirement scenario analysis. Findings indicate that although the aggregate number of active civil servant registrars in Solo Raya appears sufficient, spatial distribution across districts is uneven. Wonogiri Regency emerges as the most vulnerable area due to accumulated retirements between 2027 and 2029 and limited availability of senior registrars. A scenario projecting 50% retirement of active PNS registrars in 2029 significantly reduces real supply, positioning CPNS Penghulu as a strategic pool for KUA leadership regeneration. The study recommends medium-term projection-based planning for Head of KUA needs, strengthening merit systems in promotion, optimizing performance assessment through Employee Performance Targets (SKP), and utilizing study leave as a competency enhancement instrument for prospective Heads of KUA.